New Delhi, Oct 24, 2024: At the Indian Gaming Convention 2024, the India Development Foundation (IDF), a non-profit research organization, released its report, Modeling the Role of Skill in Online Games. This report presents a quantitative framework aimed at statistically assessing the role of skill across different online gaming formats, marking a pioneering effort to provide objective measures to differentiate between games of skill and chance.
The IDF report introduces a generalized scoring framework, applying seven statistical tests to evaluate the dominance of skill in online games. “This framework will help policymakers make objective distinctions between skill-based games and chance-based games, essential for protecting Indian gamers and fostering an innovative industry,” stated Professor Shubhashis Gangopadhyay, Research Director at IDF.
The seven statistical tests include:
- Skilled players consistently outperform those relying on random strategies.
- Players have the ability to deliberately lose.
- Greater skill increases the probability of winning.
- Skill advantages remain stable over time.
- Experience contributes to skill acquisition.
- Players of similar skill levels show similar winning percentages.
- Consistent wins are not merely due to chance.
A Framework for Policy and Regulation
The framework developed by IDF allows for game evaluation in a “black-box” approach, enabling analysis without altering game structures or rules. This flexibility means the framework can be applied to any game, whether or not real money is involved. By creating a clear distinction between skill and chance-based games, the report aims to support Indian policymakers in establishing evidence-based and consumer-protective gaming regulations.
Professor Gangopadhyay emphasized that distinguishing between skill and chance is crucial to ensuring legitimate gaming operations. “Our objective framework equips policymakers with a statistical methodology to make these distinctions,” he said, highlighting the potential for the framework to combat illegal gambling and support the development of legal, skill-based gaming in India.
Implications for the Gaming Industry
The report’s findings underscore the need for policy alignment with skill-based gaming industry practices, supporting the recognition of these games as a legitimate business. The framework, as IDF noted, also supports regulatory clarity and consumer protection by promoting evidence-based policies that reflect industry realities and legal standards.
As online gaming continues to expand in India, IDF’s statistical approach offers a significant step toward distinguishing games of skill from games of chance, promoting responsible and regulated growth in the sector.
